Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
